A final pause before the real move into the ATH?

January 26, 2024

After 95 days of positive BTC price action and 43.8% collected, we are out of the market as of Friday, Jan 26th. This week confirms the first significant flow shift on a trending basis since we went long BTC on Oct 23rd, 2023. We believe Bitcoin is due for a correction over the intermediate term (1-3 months), and that it is highly likely that we revisit 37-35k before we break into the new cyclical highs. The Tail outlook for BTC is very positive, with the inherent positive catalyst occurring in April and very, very sizeable monetary inflation to come in 2024-2025. BTC should be strongly supported and the chance of revisiting the previous ATH in the next 12 months is rather high. Take a look at a couple of charts outlining the amount of new debt and its relation to ongoing liquidity conditions which invariably have a huge impact on assets like Crypto and GOLD. For every 25$ you have in deb, you need 10$ of liquidity. The Fed will invariably have to halt its current QT program and monetize the upcoming deficits. Which is a very strong tailwind for BTC over the Tail duration.

The Tail outlook for BTC is very positive, with the inherent positive catalyst occurring in April and very, very sizeable monetary inflation to come in 2024-2025. BTC should be strongly supported and the chance of revisiting the previous ATH in the next 12 months is rather high. Take a look at a couple of charts outlining the amount of new debt and its relation to ongoing liquidity conditions which invariably have a huge impact on assets like Crypto and GOLD. For every 25$ you have in deb, you need 10$ of liquidity.

The Fed will invariably have to halt its current QT program and monetize the upcoming deficits. Which is a very strong tailwind for BTC over the Tail duration.