Latest Change in Bitcoin Signal

August 18, 2023

It is the 17th of August 2023, and the signal turned negative for the first time since the 8th of January 2023. We’ve been in the market for 221 days, and the profit over this holding period amounted to 55.24%. As of today, we are out of the market and observing further developments.
In the previous update, we outlined that we are in a very shaky part of the cycle. We believe BTC is sniffing out the decrease in liquidity which is occurring on the back of rising volatility in the treasury market.

signal-update

We are not gonna go into the wonkish details here, but the potential decline in Bitcoin as well as in SPX will depend on the magnitude of the selloff in the long dates US bonds. If the repricing is orderly and vol stabilizes, BTC might turn positive again.